5. Content producers skipping the middle man
I called it on May 8, 2011. In a post titled My predictions for Internet TV and the future of Cable.
"I’d watch for more studios and content owners to explore options for skipping the middle man and becoming the means of distribution for their content." (See story May 8, 2011)
Louis CK did it seven months later -- this December -- for his special Live at the Beacon Theatre. Instead of distributing the video through Netflix or HBO, Louis CK put it exclusively on his website. All fans had to do was visit his site, pay the $5 price and download the special. So how'd it turn out? Well, in 12 days, Lois CK's DRM-free video download made a cool $1 million. And it's still going...
Louis CK's special is only the beginning. In 2012, more will follow his model. Entertainers, content providers, even premium cable channels.
4. Customized Ads... Tailored to your purchases, browsing habits, check-ins and interests
Ads customized to your interests. Google does it best. Hulu's already doing it with in-show ads and its Ad Swap feature. You can select what you like instead of watching what Hulu thinks you'll like. Facebook does it. Facebook displays ads based on what fan pages you like. Foursquare does it too, by offering suggestions based on where you check in. Foursquare co-founder Dennis Crowley discussed the company's Explore/Recommendation engine at LeWeb 2011 in early December 2011.
"We went through about two years of Foursquare where people thought that they were checking in for mayorships and points and badges. The check-ins weren't just for the badges," Foursquare co-founder Dennis Crowley said on stage at LeWeb 2011. Every time you tell us that you like to go to this sushi place, we get better about recommending you another place to go to. Every time you tell us that...you know a lot about this area of Paris or this are of New York, we know that you're really familiar with that neighborhood. And we can suggest other things that you may not know about. Or we know when you're in areas that you're not so familiar about we can start offering things that help you out."
Ads based on what you "like," tweet, check-in, watch. Information you provide both voluntarily and data acquired based on your actions. Get ready to not hate the ads that interrupt your programming...at least not quite as much.
In 2012, Customized Advertising will be king. Whether you're aware of it or not.
3. Video-game consoles becoming complete entertainment hubs
We called it an entire year ago, on Dec. 27, 2010. In a post titled When will PS3, Xbox, Wii incorporate Internet TV.
"...When will Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo enter the [streaming content] game themselves? Doing so would offer another bit of differentiation, another perk for owners of each console.
"Who will be the first to fully embrace streaming content or Internet apps?
"Because it’s going to happen, and whichever is the first to act will only begin the next trend in video games and possibly home entertainment as we know it." (See story Dec. 27, 2010)
Xbox 360 introduced its revamped dashboard one year later, in early December of 2011. The new dashboard featured Internet apps including Netflix, Epix, SyFy, ESPN, Daily Motion, NBC News, Zune, YouTube and Live TV integration if you have the accompanying cable subscription.
In 2012, Xbox will roll out more apps and the rest will follow. It's only the beginning. The future video-game console will be a complete media hub with dozens, possibly hundreds of channels and apps.
2. Entertainment on the Cloud
I hate the term "cloud storage." Makes me think the cloud is only for backing up files. In 2012, the Cloud will become more than a backup service. Cloud for movies...music...pictures... and our movie libraries.
(I'm looking at my collection of DVDs and Blu-rays right now.) In 2012, our movie collection will extend to the cloud. Blu-rays already come with digital copies. How about a specially formatted "cloud copy"?
1. A BIG Netflix competitor
Through a few missteps in 2011, Netflix has enjoyed practically zero competition (or at least serious competition). Its maintained the largest number of video subscribers anywhere and built up its library of streaming content. Plus exclusive content on the way.
Eric's Ad Blog predicts in 2012, one new company (or a service from a partnership of companies) will emerge as the biggest competitor Netflix has seen to date.
